Rick's Midnight

终于, 又要用中文写我的spz...7月13号, 系我离开广州翻UK的日子. 林五到, 9月22号,我竟然又要翻广州...而且比原来要回广州的黄伟更早, 我只能作一声叹息, 除此无语.

英国时间21号晚, 上一秒仍然响度同朋友倾紧毕业稳工的我, 被一个电话改变左人生的轨迹.第二日,便匆匆由manchester到london, 搭上左10:30pm 从heathrow到Hong Kong的班机.12个半钟后, 当飞机降落于机场跑道的一瞬间.无亲人的迎接, 亦非如上次一般为我故意计划, 只是事出突然, 所有人都要到医院照顾我的父亲. 而只有陌生同不安在我周围环绕. 艾....倒霉的我竟然在急需赶回广州的时候遇上8号风球...为免无法坐直通火车,逼于无奈之下,只好拖住行李步上穿梭巴士...

6+5+12+4=28, 28小时系我从地球的另一面回到家所需要的时间. 虽然可能5系最快的,但已经系我所能做到的极限.终于翻到屋企, 时间又归于我手.

好奇怪, 当我阿妈话我爸脑出血之后,我竟然可以保持出奇的冷静, 谈笑之间在黄伟的帮助下两个几钟头搞掂第二日最快翻来的机票 虽然一根根的Lucky Strike在我指间不停转动. 潜意识话我知,尼个时候更需要冷静有效地处理问题毕竟某事在人, 成事在天. 从细到大, 当我要赶时间的时候,只要一坐上交通工具,紧张就会随之而去, 只因我知道, 这时的时间已經不在我手. 我所能做的只是其余的部分, 尤其系在选择路线的时候.当我收拾完行李, 订好机票后, 先开始思考茫然未知的各种可能性. 第一次, 有了亲人可能永远离开自己的感觉. 又一次, 不安再次出现.

24日早上, 当我隔着深切治疗室的玻璃见到我爸的时候, 心先开始剧烈地抽动. 我完全无法将床上已然陷入昏迷的病人同我记忆中身宽体胖的父亲联系埋一齐. 林起已在医院留守4天,瘦了一圈的母亲, 又只能再次打起精神, 维持表面的平静. 尼一刻, 我再搞5清楚我到底系一个点样既人. 在医院的长廊上, 随着眼中焦点的渐渐迷失,我开始怀疑自己是否冷血, 竟然可以响见到一直照顾爱护自己24年但现在陷入昏迷,仍在危险期的的父亲时, 5流一滴眼泪, 似无任何反应. 好想逃避, 拒绝承认事实, 直至尼一刻, 我仍难相信这一系列的变故, 但眼前的一切却准却无误地话我知, 一切系几感真实.对比起两个多月前与家人一齐的记忆, 全身只感到一阵虚脱, 心中无奈又无助. 只能慨叹, 生命的脆弱以及人力的弱小.

To be continued.......

In the past one week,  the international financial market was suffering the hardest moment of the past twenty years. Unlike dot com bubble or the far east economic crisis, the financial market is facing the risk of systemic collapse.  But after FED, China's central bank, the central bank of europe and some other departments took actions to enforce the market liquidility. The prospect of present crisis seems clearer than before.

After such a huge amount of lost costed by this sub prime mortgage crisis, some of the investors may think that if the US goverment takes actions earlier to prevent the major financial institutions out of bankruptcy or leck of capital,  the damage can be avoided or reduced. So i think it is time to clear my mind by this log.

First of all, I must admit that i underestimated the effect of this crisis when i was writing the previous share price forcasting, During that time, i forgot the US goverment have to face the moral hazard problems which may caused by their actions. Briefly speaking, if goverment lend capital to the problematic firms such as Lehman Brothers and other similar investment banks, these institutes may expect that they can get help from the goverment when they are in trouble. In this case, these companies will not obey their diligence duty.Therefore the US goverment can not inject capital to these firms directly.

Secondly,some times financial products is about marketing and packaging rather than its safety. At the end of each financial crisis, the senior managers of wall street can always creacte some brand new financial products and sell these to investors. However, the core of this business is credit, or we can say the reputation of the institute. Therefore, credit is the lifeline of financial industry. Once they lose their credit, the whole building will collapse.

So the final act of this drama is that the goverment will not only take actions to enforce investors' confidence, but also balance the negative effect of these actions, especially systemic risk. On the other hand, we can also see lots of merger and acquicitions are taking place and the market find its new equalibrium.

With these two points, i believe the major problems of the sub prime mortgage crisis are disclosed already. And the market is constructing a new framework and roles. After most of the take-over finished and investment banks wrote off most of their bad debts. The new cycle of economic growth will start. The commodity price will reduce but not equal to the price level of 2006 in the next two years. And i think it is only the beginning of this adjustment.The market needs time and space to save the enegy for the coming development.

It has been a while that i did not updated my spz..This time, when another birthday of mind is coming soon. Well, I think it is time to do something new, eventhough i believe it will be another boring brithday without you....This time, i brought a few things as gifts for my self. This card holder is one of those.Oh le Oh

Lift keep going without one second pause. Anyway, it will be the second birthday that i have in UK. I miss the old day that much, Tian Lan's tricky face, the cola king Jie Li. I do think i still have the video which about he drank half bottle of 1.25 litre co in a glance. Another unforgetable person must be Zhan Zhang, the one who i knew for more than 16 years out of my 24 years life. What a pretty......In addition, there are so many friends i am missing as well......Adam,David, Fat Wen,Yu....Jun, Donald, and of course little fish.lol
I love u guys and girls...In the coming future, we will  create our own business and definitely go for hang over together.
Best wishes to you boys and girls.