 | | |
| | |
|
Spaces home  Rick's British Midnight-...PhotosProfileFriendsMore |  Tools   |
Rick's British Midnight-----We are the champion |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
May 29 To be continueFinally,everything is done.Nomatter how,i think its time to step into the next stage of life.Even i still have three months to pure my body and soul.Life goes that fast, the night which i step on the plane is that impressive that i feels like it just happened. But the details of the previous year cant be remembered anymore.Is it a dream? Since the first day that i made my decision which i will go for the second degree, i knew i started to follow another designed project as before. Review the past five to six years, everything looks like part of the drama.How many people will expect me,a dandiacal student can go to the uni and even go abroad for a second degree.Even me,i still cant believe that i can make it. Who can tell me that even the residents will also misleading by me accent? Now, maybe it's time to say that is the power of making plans.
So tired, it's not only some physical problem.It's also about my spirit.It's some kind of loneness.Without any goal or any plan,since everything is done.Seventeen years...In the past seventeen years,only god knows how lucky i am. Only my neck will tell me how tough it is.But finally, everything is done.
No one knows what is gonna to be in the future.Maybe i will become wealthy with my best friends, maybe i will become one of the office worker as the others.But the only thing which i can sure is that i can't show my true emotion to the others any more.Maybe it is the most redicular thing in this world.But without this shell, i cant get what i always want. So i think it is time to hide myself into the deepest place of the world so that i can solve the difficultys from the next stage of life.
May 03 Cointegration,From my course workCointegration Analysis of Indices Introduction We always can hear that Hang Seng Hong Kong Composite Index follows the trend of Dow Jones Industrial Average going up or down. But how can these two countries’ indices are linked together. Are they really having strong correlation? As an important trading terminal in Far East, Hong Kong insists free trade policy for more than 30 years. As the result of keeping the linkage system between the US dollar and the HK dollar, Investors and traders can enjoy full protection and get away from the foreign exchange risk. Otherwise Hong Kong also has a unique advantage of exporting Chinese goods to foreign countries, especially the biggest import country and business partner, America. Therefore I infer that its economy must be strongly related to Chinese and American economies. For this reason, I will try to find out whether Hang Seng Composite Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average are cointegrated in the following paragraphs. If they are cointegrated, then maybe we can use calendar effects and its cointegration to do arbitrage. Especially when the beta 2 is not high, just as forward’s spot price and future price. It will give us higher profit margin to trade. Theory Review Cointegration is a useful way to disclose whether there is some relationship between two variables and how strong are they linked together. If the two variables are cointegrated, we can use equilibrium correction model to get the long term and short term relationship. In this model, beta 2 is the speed of adjustment and gamma can be considered as the long term relationship of the independent and dependent variables. Once we have a precise beta 2, it means that we will know how fast the price will back to equilibrium if it is mispricing. And we can also predict the trend of dependent variable. It will help us to adjust our portfolio to reduce risk. As two basic assumptions of the modern financial theory, random walk with drift and efficient market hypothesis are telling us that the movement of stock prices is completely random and the price will reflect all kinds of news immediately. The difference of present price and previous is not constant or following any rules. From its equation, we can see that the present price is constructed by the previous price, an unpredictable error term and lag value. Because the error term and lags can’t be estimated, so the previous price can never be used for predicting the future price. It also means that we can’t earn any abnormal return persistently. Secondly, we can see that the shocks in the practical financial market will die away as the time goes by. But the problem is that most of the financial data is non-stationary and has only one unit root, which means the shock of these data will last forever or even explode. So it will not make sense at all if we use these kinds of data. On the other hand it will also cause spurious regressions and other problems. Even the two variables are independent, but we can always find out an equation with high R square for them. Under this circumstance, we need to difference them once to make them become stationary. Basically, the cointegration test is based on the unit root test. First of all we need to make sure each of the two logged variables has one unit root. It means that both of them are non-stationary. Then use the Classical Linear Regression Model and collect their residual from this regression. At last do the unit root test again for the new residual. If it’s stationary which represented by zero unit root, hence we know these two variables are cointegrated. So therefore we can go further and use error correction model to find out their short term relationship. Conclusions Generally speaking, the result can satisfy what I expect and infer. And based on the result of the fitness of error correction model, it can adequate to the data very well. It shows that The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Hang Seng Hong Kong Composite Index are cointegrated. Therefore we have opportunities of doing arbitrage between these two countries indices. Especially the speed of adjustment is not high, it give us more profit margin and time to invest. During this analysis, we also can find out that the sample size and the data periods are critical to the final result. We need to use the historical background of these data to decide which part of series can actually stand for the long run relationship. To get a better result, I think we still can improve the tests. We know that the financial data are not linear but non-linear, so using the Classical Linear Regression Model to get the residual may not accurate enough, especially when the T-statistic is close to the rejection area. Therefore we may use non-linear model instead of linear model to solve the non-linear cointegration. April 05 Sad for my own country---ChinaDuring the past few weeks, i even cant remember how many times that i defenced for my own country--China.But after that i realised that most of the people who are from other nations are supporting Tibet.I also dont want to write anything about this, but now i have to say that without any doubt Tibet is part of China.Im so tired about this argument.
Human right is human right. There is no relationship between human right and the nations right. In this text,im not gonna to convince anyone but i have to ask them to consider this thing netrually,especially the people who never been to Tibet before. For my view, they have no right to judge what Tibet should be,just the same as we cant force your own countries to do anything.
For me, Britain is the most disgusting country in the world, even worse than US. You cause so many disputes such as India and Pakistan but you never even try to solve it. I know that politics is always the dirtiest thing in the world.
For me, i will not angry with the opinions which is cause by naive, but the opinions which is about haughty.Do u actually think that you are always right?You want us to respect your culture and the others ,but did u even try to understand us?
I agree that our goverment has some many things need to improve at present, but it doesnt mean that we did nothing to this. Our goverment is limiting the information by media, but how about your goverment. Do u actually think that they are gonna to let you know all the things? No,everyone is selfish. No one will do anything which is harmful to himself.
You saw the videos on youtube, the photos on newspapers.but did u ever think about the maybe there is some part of the photo has been cropped and so are the videos? Sometimes we even cant believe what we see.We have to experiance these by ourselves.
The modern border was developped by international agreements.Think about England Scotland and Ireland, dont u think it looks similar? so is the America,they just signed the agreement to united together.But Tibet was part of China in the past 6 to 7 hundred years and we never signed any agreements which allowing Tibet to be an independent country.On the other hand our goverment knew that we have different culture so sending army and governers to manage this place is not the best choose.So we let them to ruling their places.But without any doubt that we have its dominion. All the disputes of Tibet are about religion, the goverment is antitheism, but tibetian are Buddhist.Dala lama is their god, the one who they cant fight against. If they do,it means that they will never find the way to heaven. Thats a gap of cultures. I dont know whether our goverment has already given them enough respect and freedom or not, because i never been there. But at least they have the same human rights as i have. So why western countries are still blaming us and threaten us to do the things which they also dont want to do.We have an old adage,50 steps laughing at the 100 steps.U r doing the same thing.
April 04 The Power Of MediaThe Riots in Lhasa by Eirik Granqvist, a foreign expert in Shanghai who visited Tibet in 2006 "The western medias announced that China had cut all information and that articles about the riots could not be sent out! I got mad about all the apparently incorrect information and wrote this article and two other similar ones although I am not a journalist but just because I could not stand all the bad things about China that was told. I sent them by e-mail without problems and they arrived well but two newspapers did neither respond neither publish what I had written. The third answered and wanted a shorter version that was published many days later as a normal 'readers voice'. What Dalai Lama had said was largely published every day together with a real anti-China propaganda. What I had written was apparently too China friendly for the 'free press'." I was very shocked by what I had seen in the television and been reading in China daily about the riots in Lhasa. The most that shocked me was anyhow may be not the cruel events by themselves but how the medias in my country of origin, Finland, reported the events. A friend has scanned and sent me articles and I have checked also myself what can be found at Internet. Very few Finnish people have ever visited Tibet, but I was there together with my wife in 2006. This was private persons and not as a part of a group-travel. I have seen Lhasa with my own eyes. I have been talking and chatting with people there. This was without any restrictions. Okay, we had a lovely and very competent guide that helped us much and took us where we wanted to go in the mornings but in the afternoons we were alone. Therefore I think that I have something to tell. I am also interested in history and know more than people in general. When writing this, I do not have any reference books so I write out of my memory. If I do a small mistake somewhere, I beg your pardon. Anyhow, I think that this gives my writing an objectivity. I am well aware of that I will be accused for this and that for writing what I think is the truth. I will be accused by those who think that they know but do not know and by those that haven't seen by their own eyes. Tibet was for centuries an autonomous concordat between Nepal and China. Sometimes China ruled Nepal as well. The king of Tibet used therefore to have one Chinese wife and one Nepalese and then a number of Tibetan ones. With the fifth Dalai Lama, the religious and the political power were unified under the rule of one person, The Dalai Lama. Tibet became a theocratic dictatorship and closed itself for the rest of the world. No foreigners were anymore allowed in. At the end of the nineteenth century, the famous Swedish traveller Sven Hedin made an attempt to reach Lhasa but was sent politely back, out of Tibet by Dalai Lama. A French woman, Alexandra David-Néel was more successful. She visited Lhasa dressed as a Tibetan pilgrim and she was fluent in the Tibetan language. She told how she was afraid many times that she should be discovered and then she knew that she like other suspects or opponents should "happen to fall down" from the walls of the Potala palace. Tibet was not a paradise. Tibet was an inhuman dictatorship! The weakened Chinese Qing Dynasty had more and more lost its influence in Tibet. Tibet became more and more interesting for the Russian empire in the north and the British in the south. In 1903 a British army expedition directed by the colonel Younghusband reached Lhasa. The British lost 4 soldiers but slaughtered more the 700 Tibetans that tryed to stop them, mainly by magic. The British installed "a commercial representation" in Lhasa. The Chinese evacuated Dalai Lama to the Qinghai plateau where he hade limited rights of move, probably for preventing him from having contacts with the British occupants. The Finnish national hero, Marshal Mannerheim, visited him there in 1907 during his famous horseback trip through central Asia. He was then a colonel in the Tsar Russian army and his trip was in reality a spy trip. Therefore the 13th Dalai Lama was interesting. The power of Dalai Lama was weakened. In 1950 the PLA marched in to Tibet without war. The 14th Dalai Lama seems at the beginning to have accepted this just as a security for his power as the theocratic dictator he was. He enlarged and restructured the Norbulingka Summer Palace in a luxury way in 1954. The Chinese decided anyhow to finish with the cruel theocratic dictatorship under which the opponents fell down from Potala. The borders where during this dictatorship closed for all foreigners and the only schools where the religious ones. It is well known that it is easier to rule a population with a low education and is ignoring the outside world. In Tibet, about 5% of the population owned everything and the rest literally nothing. About 40% of the Tibetans were monks and nuns living as parasites on the rest of the population that had to feed them. Tibet was not a paradise! Now China decided that the Tibetans should have the same rights and place in the society as the rest of the country's population. The monasteries should be emptied from their excessively large monk and nun populations. Tibet could earlier be reached only by some horse trails and was for the rest insulated. The Chinese built rapidly a trafficable road. The insulation was broken. In 1959, the young Dalai Lama caused a peoples upraising, using the religion as power since he was loosing his own powerful position. The upraising was however stopped, may be in not a too clever and smooth manner. Dalai Lama then left Tibet and his fellow citizens and escaped to India wherefrom he has continued to fight for his come back and reinstall the theocratic dictatorship that China will never allow again. Then followed the ten years of Cultural Revolution that was an unhappy time for all China that closed itself to the rest of the world. Now Lhasa has a modern airport and a railway. China has invested a lot in Tibet. The standard of living has been raised a lot in Tibet and last Xmas I have seen Tibetans spending sun-holidays on Hainan Island! Very lucky looking old women in traditional dresses walking on the beach with their husbands and the youngsters dressed like other young people enjoying the beach life. The possibilities for Dalai Lama to take back his power has diminished and he does not anymore have the population with him. China and India are developing their cooperation and with the closer friendship, India will for sure also not more admit Dalai Lama to disturb this development. His possibilities to act against China will be diminished. Therefore he undertook recently an around the world diplomatic travel since he has seen the possibility of harming the now good international image of China and provoking boycotts of the Olympic games in Beijing. The Lhasa riots where very well prepared. Curriers where crossing the borders illegally for to see Dalai Lama and get his orders. A group of foreign mountain climbers filmed recently across the border an unlucky incident when one of these curriers got shot and another that crossed the border openly declared that he wanted to go to see the Dalai Lama. I have seen that in television just before I left for China in November. China is no longer a closed country. There is no need for illegal border crossings if you are not doing something illegally! You just ask for a passport and take the necessary visas and cross the border at a legal border crossing or better, just take a regular flight from Lhasa to Kathmandu! There where no peaceful demonstrations in Lhasa that where brutally knocked down! Young men went to action after a well prepared scenario at many places at the same time so that police and fire brigade should be taken by surprise and unable to act everywhere at the same time. This was successful! People where just knocked down without differences and all what could be broken was broken in the shortest possible time. With Molotov cocktails, fires where lit and fire cars where stopped. 18 normal citizens where killed without feelings and one police. The police had order to not respond with firearms for not being internationally blamed! When I have seen the filmed riots in television, my diagnosis was immediately clear. The scenario was the same that I had seen many times of organized riots in France since more the forty years of tight familiar contacts and 21 years of living there. The difference was only that less ordinary people seemed to take part in Lhasa. The rioters where surprisingly few but well organized! China's positive image in the world should be damaged! Dalai Lama is acting as the friendly and peaceful father. This is an old trick that also dictators like Hitler and Stalin used. I am not comparing him with them but he is acting like a demon when he tries to take back his power at any cost, not once caring for human lives and against Buddhistic non-violence principles. It was a try to do a coup d'ètat that failed. Now he is asking for international help for to stop the violence that he, himself had planned! When I visited Tibet in 2006, I was surprised by the relaxed atmosphere and the few policemen in Lhasa. All that I have seen were Tibetans. Not the Han-Chinese. The atmosphere was remarkably peaceful and gave a picture of general well living. There was no oppressed feeling like I had seen so many times in the Soviet Union and its satellites before all that non-human system collapsed. People in Lhasa where friendly and wanted to speak to me, mostly without success since I do not speak Chinese nor Tibetan but up and then somebody could speak some words in English. Their wish for contact was just out of normal curiosity towards the foreigners. I had heard that the religious life should been oppressed but it was flowering! I had also heard that so many Han Chinese where moved in that the Tibetans where now very few in Lhasa. I did however see much more Tibetans there. May be that the Han Chinese where hiding? The western medias announced that China had cut all information and that articles about the riots could not be sent out! I got mad about all the apparently incorrect information and wrote this article and two other similar ones although I am not a journalist but just because I could not stand all the bad things about China that was told. I sent them by e-mail without problems and they arrived well but two newspapers did neither respond neither publish what I had written. The third answered and wanted a shorter version that was published many days later as a normal "readers voice". What Dalai Lama had said was largely published every day together with a real anti-China propaganda. What I had written was apparently too China friendly for the "free press". March 11 Stock price analysisFirst, lets talk about shanghai composite index.Even it's at about 4100 points now. but technically i belive it can be pushed back to almost 5000 points in the next two or three months.But right now it needs some time to digest the negative news of the export groth rate and the ressesion of American economy.If the changes of tax stamp come true in the future,it will definitely enhance the market confidence.
I still insist that the market is not lack of capital. Investors just need a reason or we can say an expectation to reinvest their money.But no matter what will happen,i will still sell most of my shares if the composite index back to 5000 points. Coz i also believe that the decay of US economy will not finish or be solved that easy. The reason why i set 5000 points as the target level is based on the wave theory.It should be the peak of the wave B in this bussiness cycle.Maybe i will make mistakes,but i will still try to analysis the index.It's easier than companies shares.Coz it's the reflection of the market so that for any organization it's almost impossible to affect its trend.
Advise:
Maybe its a good time to invest bank of china step by step. Its share prices kept stable for more than a month between 5.3 to 5.7. If someone is not bovince enough and want to take more risk to maximise their profit then it's probably a good chance to get in the market.
Welcome to my space and expect your words |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
Invite as friend
hohoo...